argument 总结by lian_zhuxi

responsible for (原命题中的某种结果).

(2) However, (原命题中的某种结果) might have been due instead to (它因)

(3) Lacking evidence to the contrary, (原命题中的某种结果) might have been due

instead to (它因)

Without ruling out all other reasons why (原命题中的某种结果),the argument that(结论) is dubious at best.

完全形式：（1）Suppose that(导致上述结果的主体可能进行的其他行为)，all of which might have been

responsible for (原命题中的某种结果).Thus, only concerning the (原命题中作者提供的原因), may mislead (主体)to neglect other aspects that may be the true reasons contributing to the (原命题中的某种结果).

(2)Perhaps,(它因1). Or perhaps (它因2)

展开2：correlation, link 和causal relationship 的差异

A direct correlation between „ and „ does not necessarily prove that the former

causes the latter. While a high correlation is strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. The author must also account for all other possible factors leading to „ such as „.

展开3：颠倒因果

To begin with, it is possible that the arguer confused the cause and effect by

concluding that children on the breakfast plan were less likely to be absent from and late for school because they took part in the program. After all, the breakfast were made available at school, so only those who always went to school early could regale on the breakfast. Without accounting for this possibility, the argument might be totally unjustified.

展开4：作者无端假设其他相关因素均不变

The argument assumes all other factors affecting „ have remained constant

since „.

第二类错误：与调查有关的错误

1> A thresh-hold problem with the argument involves the study process. The study results are reliable only if all other factors that might affect incidence of heart attack and the level of cholesterol remained invariable during the study , and if the sample of this study was sufficient in size and representative of the overall group of people worldwide. Without evidence of the study’ methodological and statistical reliability, the speaker’s conclusion based on the study is unjustifiable.

2> The methodology of the first survey might be problematic in two aspects: First, we are not inform the exact number of the respondents and if those respondents were selected randomly. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is entirely possible that the respondents only account

for a small proportion of the overall population of students and that they have been chosen designedly. Nor are we informed whether survey responses were anonymous or even confidential. If they were not, then the respondents might have distorted their true preference due to girls’ coy nature. Either scenario, if true, would cast serious doubt on the arguer’s conclusion based on this survey.

3> To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the study’s results are statistically reliable. In order to establish a strong correlation between dietary iron and heart disease, the study’s sample must be sufficient in size and representative of the over population of heart-disease victims. Lacking evidence of a sufficiently representative sample, the author cannot justifiably rely on the study to draw any conclusion whatsoever.

4> Two final problems with the argument involve the experimental process. The experiment’s results are reliable only if all other factors that might affect sleep patterns remained constant during the three-week period, and if the number of experimental subjects is statistically reliable. Without evidence of the experiment’s methodological and statistical reliability, the speaker’s conclusion is unjustifiable.

5> Secondly, the author fails to indicate when the statistics showing this nationwide tendency were collected. The longer the time between the collection of these statistics and the election, the greater possibility that the tendency has changed over this time span, and the less justifiable the author’s reliance on these statistics to support the claim that„

第三类错误：False Analogy 1> 行业间的 False Analogy

The arguer simply assumes that industrial1 and industrial2 perform many similar functions, but he does not provide any evidence that their functions are indeed comparable. As we known, the„of industrial1 and those of industrial2 differ conspicuously. Therefore, even though (industrial1’s success) , there is no guarantee that (industrial2’s success)./ Without accounting for these and other possible dissimilarities, the arguer cannot assumes that what resulted in (industrial1’s success) would bring out the same result in (industrial2’s success).

2> 地域间的 False Analogy

Nor can the manager justify „ on the basis of „’success. Or perhaps„ . Or perhaps„. In short, the manager cannot defend the recommendation on the basis of what might be a false analogy between two„.

It is entirely possible that similar(same) actions would be ineffective in„ due to the„ differences between„ and „.Without accounting for such differences any analogy between the two„ is premature, and any conclusion based on that analogy is unjustifiable.

第四类错误：证据不足

1> The mere fact that „ is scant evidence that „

2> The mere fact that „ hardly suffices to infer that„ 3> The mere fact that „is not necessarily indicate that „ 4> The arguer assumes too hastily, on the basis of „ , that „

第五类错误：信息时效性问题 1>时间太长

To begin with, Walsh’s prior rate of placing laid-off XYZ employees is not necessarily a reliable indicator of what that rate would be now. Perhaps, the placement rate 8 years ago was due to general economic downturn or some other factors beyond Walsh’s control. For that matter, perhaps the rate was relative high among all placement service during that time period. 2>时间太短

Perhaps not enough time has passed to determine the effectiveness of this change in reducing the accident rate. 3>数据来源单一

Besides, a single years’ s statistics hardly suffices to draw any general conclusion. Last year might have been exceptional—due to some unusually event that is unlikely to reoccur, such as „ .

第六类错误：没有全面权衡利弊

Profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Thus, it is entirely possible that the „(列举可能的costs), might render the „ unprofitable despite its popularity. Without weighing revenue against expenses the argument’s conclusion is premature at best.

第七类错误：局部推整体或整体推局部 1>整体推局部 The nationwide trends that(study showing that) „ would lend credible support for the argument only if local residents(fans) typify residents(fans) nationwide. 2>以小推大 Even I were to concede that „ this single sample is insufficient to draw any general conclusion about „. Without additional samples from diverse geographic locations , I cannot accept the author’s sweeping generalization about „

第八类错误：论断中出现 “should” 或是 “best” 等绝对化词语

1> Finally, in concluding that DR must hire Ad Lib in order to ensure similar success through out the country, the manager assumes that Ad Lib’s services are both necessary and sufficient for this purpose. Yet the manager has not provide any evidence to substantiate either assumption. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is just as likely that some other ad agency would be equally or more effective. Even if Ad Lib’s service are necessary to achieve the manager’s goal, it is entirely possible that Ad Lib’s service would not suffices to ensure similar success elsewhere—due to the sort of factors mentioned above that might have contributed to the M success but would not come into play in other cities. 2> Without weighing the proposal against alternative methods by which the „ could achieve the desired goal either, the author cannot confidently asserts that his proposal would be the optimal choice for „

第九类错误：差异概念(缺少关键定义) 1> Also, the memo unfairly equates the speed with which one finds a job with job-seeking success. Common sense, however, informs me that the effective of a job search depends not only on how quickly one finds a job, but also on compensation, benefits, location, and type of work. 2> A threshold problem involves the definition of insomnia. The speaker fails to define this critical definition. If insomnia is defined as an inability to fall asleep, then how soundly or long a person sleeps, or how tired a person feels after sleep , is irrelevant to whether the person suffers from insomnia. In short, without a clear definition of insomnia it is impossible to assess the strength of the argument.

第十类错误：结论的可行性问题